U.S. Solar Tariffs Reshape Southeast Asia: Can Vietnam Become the Next PV Manufacturing Hub?

On September 11, 2026, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced final antidumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) determinations on crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells from India, Indonesia and Laos. The final dumping margins were set at 123.04% for India, 94.36% for Indonesia and 65.43% for Laos. Countervailing duty rates ranged from 73.20% to 173.70% for Indonesian producers and from 82.03% to 153.67% for Lao producers. India received a 126.09% CVD rate.

The Commerce Department’s determination is an important step, although final duty orders still depend on the U.S. International Trade Commission’s injury determination. The USITC is expected to make its final decision in October 2026.

The significance of this case goes beyond tariffs. Over the past decade, Chinese solar manufacturers have increasingly expanded production into Southeast Asia as U.S. trade restrictions on Chinese photovoltaic products intensified. The new measures against Indonesia and Laos indicate that the traditional model of “Chinese supply chains + Southeast Asian processing + U.S. exports” is facing increasing trade-policy risks.

This raises an important question:

Could Vietnam become one of the major beneficiaries of the next wave of Southeast Asian solar supply-chain restructuring?

1. Why the Indonesia and Laos Decisions Matter

The immediate impact of the new duties is to significantly reduce the attractiveness of Indonesia and Laos as solar manufacturing bases serving the U.S. market.

According to U.S. Commerce Department data, U.S. imports of the investigated solar products from Indonesia were approximately $415 million in 2024, while imports from Laos reached about $336 million. Lao exports to the U.S. increased particularly rapidly, from almost zero in 2023 to approximately 1.91 billion watts in 2024.

The new trade measures therefore create pressure on companies with U.S.-oriented production facilities to reconsider their strategies.

Their options include:

• continuing to serve the U.S. market despite higher duties;
• redirecting products to other markets;
• restructuring their supply chains; or
• relocating production to alternative countries.

Importantly, the investigation covers crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells whether or not assembled into modules. Simply moving the final module assembly process from one country to another may therefore not be sufficient to eliminate trade-policy risks.

2. Could Vietnam Become the Next Manufacturing Destination?

Potentially yes—but Vietnam should not be viewed simply as a new tariff-avoidance route.

Vietnam is already an important photovoltaic manufacturing base in Southeast Asia. Industry research indicates that Southeast Asia has developed a significant global solar cell and module manufacturing cluster, with Chinese companies such as JinkoSolar and JA Solar establishing production facilities in Vietnam.

At the same time, Vietnam itself is already subject to U.S. solar trade measures. In 2025, the U.S. Department of Commerce issued final AD/CVD determinations involving crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells from Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand and Cambodia.

Therefore, Vietnam is not a completely “safe harbor” for U.S.-bound solar products.

The more sustainable model is likely to be:

China technology and supply chains → Vietnam manufacturing → global markets

rather than simply:

China → Vietnam → U.S.

3. Opportunity 1: Relocation of Chinese Solar Manufacturing Capacity

China’s solar industry continues to face significant overcapacity and intense price competition. At the same time, Chinese companies retain major advantages in equipment, technology, manufacturing know-how and supply-chain integration.

Trade barriers may therefore encourage, rather than eliminate, overseas manufacturing investment.

Vietnam has several advantages:

• an established manufacturing ecosystem;
• a large presence of Chinese and other Asian manufacturers;
• geographic proximity to China’s supply chain;
• developed ports and export infrastructure;
• extensive industrial parks;
• competitive manufacturing costs.

As companies reconsider production in Indonesia and Laos, Vietnam could become one of the alternative destinations for new investment.

4. Opportunity 2: Moving Beyond Module Assembly

One of Vietnam’s most important opportunities is to attract deeper manufacturing activities.

Historically, some Southeast Asian solar investment focused heavily on:

Cell → Module

particularly module assembly.

However, U.S. trade enforcement is increasingly focused on the origin and composition of products. The U.S. Department of Energy has noted that the United States previously identified circumvention involving certain solar products from Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand and Cambodia. Under specific conditions, products using Chinese wafers and multiple Chinese-made components could be considered to be circumventing Chinese AD/CVD measures.

This creates an incentive for manufacturers to undertake more substantial manufacturing activities in Vietnam.

Potential areas include:

Wafer → Cell → Module

as well as:

PV equipment → Cell manufacturing equipment → Module equipment → Testing and automation

The deeper the local production ecosystem becomes, the greater Vietnam’s long-term strategic value as a manufacturing hub.

5. Opportunity 3: Localization of PV Supporting Industries

Another major opportunity lies in photovoltaic materials and components.

Growing manufacturing capacity will create demand for:

• solar glass;
• EVA and POE encapsulants;
• backsheets;
• aluminum frames;
• junction boxes;
• connectors;
• photovoltaic cables;
• sealants;
• industrial gases;
• cell-manufacturing chemicals;
• automation equipment;
• testing equipment;
• environmental protection systems.

This means Vietnam’s solar industry should not be evaluated solely by gigawatts of installed manufacturing capacity.

A more important question is:

How much of the photovoltaic supply chain can be localized in Vietnam?

This creates opportunities for Vietnamese suppliers, industrial parks, engineering companies and equipment manufacturers.

6. Opportunity 4: Vietnam as a Global, Rather Than U.S.-Focused, Export Base

If access to the U.S. market becomes increasingly difficult, Vietnam’s photovoltaic industry can diversify toward other markets.

Southeast Asia itself is becoming an increasingly important market for Chinese clean-energy products. In 2026, ASEAN countries are expected to purchase more than $20 billion of Chinese clean-energy products. Solar-panel imports alone reached approximately $4.1 billion and increased by around 90% year on year.

Vietnam could therefore develop a diversified export model:

Vietnam manufacturing

↓

ASEAN + India + Middle East + Europe + Africa

This would reduce dependence on the U.S. market and make manufacturing investment more resilient to individual-country trade policies.

7. Opportunity 5: Supply-Chain Traceability and Trade Compliance

Stricter U.S. trade enforcement is also creating demand for supply-chain compliance services.

International solar manufacturers will increasingly need to understand:

• the origin of wafers;
• the source of cells;
• manufacturing locations;
• component suppliers;
• ownership structures;
• the use of Chinese components;
• supply-chain traceability;
• customs compliance;
• ESG requirements;
• supply-chain audits.

Vietnam could therefore develop not only as a manufacturing center, but also as a regional hub for supply-chain compliance and international trade services.

This could create opportunities for consulting firms, certification companies, logistics providers, law firms and third-party auditors.

8. The Major Risk: Vietnam Cannot Simply Become a New Transshipment Hub

This is critical for investors.

The U.S. has already implemented trade measures involving solar products from Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and Cambodia. The U.S. government has also previously investigated potential circumvention of Chinese solar trade measures involving Southeast Asian producers. citeturn0search14turn0search7

Therefore, the model of:

Chinese wafers/cells → simple assembly in Vietnam → U.S.

could remain vulnerable to future trade investigations.

A more sustainable model is:

China technology + Vietnam substantial manufacturing + transparent supply chains + diversified global markets

This model combines Chinese technological and supply-chain advantages with genuine manufacturing capabilities in Vietnam.

9. Key Opportunities for Vietnam’s Solar Industry

10. CRI’s View

The U.S. final AD/CVD determinations against solar products from Indonesia and Laos could become an important turning point in the restructuring of Southeast Asia’s photovoltaic supply chain.

However, the likely outcome is not simply that Chinese companies will move factories from Indonesia and Laos to Vietnam.

A more structural transformation is likely:

Transshipment-oriented production → deeper regional manufacturing → integrated supply-chain development

For Vietnam, the real opportunity is therefore not simply to attract more module assembly capacity. It is to develop a broader renewable-energy ecosystem covering:

solar cells + modules + PV materials + equipment + energy storage + domestic demand + global exports.

For investors and companies considering Vietnam, three groups deserve particular attention:

First, Chinese solar companies looking for alternative overseas production bases after reassessing Indonesia and Laos.

Second, companies planning new investments in solar cells, modules and PV materials in Vietnam.

Third, businesses providing equipment, materials, logistics, certification, traceability and supply-chain compliance services to the photovoltaic industry.

The next phase of Vietnam’s solar industry may therefore be less about becoming another low-cost assembly base and more about becoming a regional clean-energy manufacturing and supply-chain hub.

CRI will continue to monitor U.S. trade-policy developments and their impact on Vietnam and Southeast Asia’s renewable-energy supply chains, providing market research, industry-chain analysis, investment feasibility studies, business plans, supplier and distributor research, and Vietnam market-entry consulting services.